Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Commentators Caution

A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."