Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Fuels Villa's Improbable Title Charge

Just eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him over missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Hopefuls?

This is a particularly tough query to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, even as the wins have accumulated.

According to the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their star man to save the day with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.

His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
• The winger could transform into the performer he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers faced the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and should be relished.