Why Middle Eastern Money Hasn't Turned The Magpies into Championship Contenders

Eddie Howe isn't typically given to histrionics or grand public pronouncements. So by his standards, his media briefing after Sunday’s 3-1 defeat qualifies as a angry tirade. His side took an early lead but West Ham were ahead by the interval, as well as hitting the post and seeing a spot-kick overturned by VAR, prompting Howe to make a triple change at the half-time.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” Howe stated. “Virtually any player could have been substituted and I think that was a reflection of our performance level in that moment in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to have that impression. In fact, I don’t think I have since I’ve been manager of the club, so I felt the team required some shaking up at half-time. That’s why I made what I did.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth were substituted at half-time and Newcastle did stabilise somewhat in the latter period, but never appearing like they might get back into the game against an opponent that had secured just a single victory of their last nine league matches. Given the congestion the centre of the standings currently is, with just three points separating third from 11th, and a nine-point margin between second and 17th, a run of twelve points from 10 games has not placed the Magpies adrift but, similarly, they must not finish the season in 13th.

The Problem of Expectations

The challenge partially is one of perception. With the Saudi PIF, Newcastle have the wealthiest backers in the world. The assumption when the Saudi fund bought a majority stake of the club in 2021 was that it would bring a game-changing impact, similar to the former Chelsea owner had at Chelsea or the City Group had at Manchester City. The difference is that both of those investors assumed control before the advent of FFP regulations (and the current charges against Manchester City relate to whether they breached those guidelines once they were implemented).

Financial regulations restrict the ability of owners, no matter how wealthy, to spend money on their squads and therefore likely would have hindered any Saudi effort to elevate Newcastle to the standard of Manchester City. But it wasn't necessary for the club's spending to have been so restrained as it has been; they could have spent more and remained within the threshold – or just accepted a fairly minor European fine given their big issue is more with the European than the domestic regulation.

Stadium Spending and PSR Rules

Besides which, infrastructure spending is excluded from Profit and Sustainability calculations; the easiest method to raise income to generate additional PSR flexibility would be to expand or redevelop the stadium. Given the location of St James’ Park, with protected structures on multiple sides, practically that probably implies constructing an completely new venue. There was talk in March of potentially making the nearby relocation to a local park – resistance from local groups could surely have been overcome with a promise to create a replacement green space on the existing stadium site – but there has not been no movement on that proposal. There has been significant cutbacks from the PIF on a range of initiatives as it shifts focus on local investments; the attitude to Newcastle appears entirely in keeping with that change of approach.

The Alexander Isak Situation

The Alexander Isak episode was arose from that tension. A more confident leadership might have portrayed his sale as essential to free up capital for further investment; instead there was a unsuccessful attempt to keep him. This resulted in Newcastle began the season amidst a feeling of disappointment despite the acquisitions of several new players. The start was mixed: a single victory in their initial six games.

But it seemed a turning point was reached. They secured five in six prior to Sunday, a run that featured demolitions of a Belgian side and Benfica in the European competition. That’s why the performance against the Hammers was so surprising. The issue perhaps is that the team's style is extremely intense, very high-octane; a minor decrease in intensity can have profound consequences. Maybe the strain of Premier League, European and Carabao Cup matches, five fixtures in 15 days, had got to them. Woltemade started each of those games and appeared particularly fatigued.

Reality of Modern Football

That’s the nature of modern football. Coaches have to be ready to rotate. Howe has been unfortunate that Wissa’s fitness issue has left him short of attacking options but, no matter how valid the reasons, Sunday’s showing was unacceptable –especially after scoring first at a ground ready to criticize its own side.

Howe will hope it was just a blip, an off-day when everybody is below par at once, but if the Magpies are to secure the Champions League in the future, let alone one day mount an genuine title challenge, they cannot be as inconsistent as this.